U.S. President Donald Trump pulls back on his threats to launch devastating strikes on Iran, swerving to deescalate the war less than two hours before the deadline he set for Tehran to capitulate.
No, the rest of the world isn’t just going to instantly nuke the US. If Iran gets nuked it won’t be via an ICBM but more likely a traditional aircraft or possibly ship launched nuke. Until it goes off it won’t look too much different from any of the other weapons being dropped on Iran. What it would do though is instantly turn the US into even more of a pariah than it already is. You’d likely see pretty much instant sanctions across the board which would tank the US economy, and might finally manage to get Trump impeached and convicted. Might even be able to convince the spineless bastards in Washington to hand Trump over to the ICC in exchange for lifting some of the sanctions.
Theres every reason to think the Russians would consider a nuclear trigger-happy US an existential threat to them and launch a pre emptive attack. After all, the US (through Ukraine) launched attacks on Russia’s strategic bombers and Putins nuclear bunker which would have been considered suicidal during the Cold War
Yes Russia could launch a preemptive nuclear attack because Trump is a lunatic who kills and kidnaps leaders of other countries and sends drones (via Ukraine) to bomb Russian strategic sites
So Russia might think “kill them before they kill us” should Trump or Netanyahu use nukes against Iran.
MAD doesn’t work if one of the players is literally mad.
In response, the US nukes Russia. Not just a little bit either, they nuke all population sites.
No “decapitation” strike is possible from either side. Any attack by either side is met by the other striking back, and again not just a little bit - all population sites. That is what mutually assured destruction is.
And maybe more if you need:
if you think the US nukes Russia, then:
surprise, Russia nukes the US back.
Once again, no decapitation strike is possible from either side. A strike by the US is met by Russia striking back. That is what mutually assured destruction is.
MAD literally works if either side starts nuking the other, regardless of the reason why. This is the whole basis of MAD.
Ok I’m really gonna peace out. You really need to do some reading.
How can they sanction us when global finance still overwhelmingly depends on the dollar though? It would certainly accelerate efforts to move to a new financial regime but it would still take years to accomplish.
Maybe mass dumping of US treasuries could be a feasible immediate option.
How can they sanction us when global finance still overwhelmingly depends on the dollar though?
The world has been gradually de-dollarizing for over a decade now. USD held as global currency reserves has fallen from 70% to 40%. BRICS nations are implementing their own payment systems based on the renminbi, and the eurozone obviously can operate independently already.
A lot of global value is tied up in US investment systems, sure. But a nuke drop would make that value not very valuable anymore. It would suck and the world would be stuck in another great depression, but the rest of the world has plenty of functional financial systems to keep moving on.
No, the rest of the world isn’t just going to instantly nuke the US. If Iran gets nuked it won’t be via an ICBM but more likely a traditional aircraft or possibly ship launched nuke. Until it goes off it won’t look too much different from any of the other weapons being dropped on Iran. What it would do though is instantly turn the US into even more of a pariah than it already is. You’d likely see pretty much instant sanctions across the board which would tank the US economy, and might finally manage to get Trump impeached and convicted. Might even be able to convince the spineless bastards in Washington to hand Trump over to the ICC in exchange for lifting some of the sanctions.
One can dream.
Theres every reason to think the Russians would consider a nuclear trigger-happy US an existential threat to them and launch a pre emptive attack. After all, the US (through Ukraine) launched attacks on Russia’s strategic bombers and Putins nuclear bunker which would have been considered suicidal during the Cold War
If a nuclear weapon is used all bets are off.
Preemptive attacks don’t work when they will nuke you back. This is the principle behind Mutually Assured Destruction.
MAD assumes the other side is rational. Trump is a lunatic.
First you said Russia, not the US, would do a preemptive nuclear attack. So this isn’t about Trump, it’s about Putin.
Second, Russia wouldn’t do it because of MAD. That’s the whole concept of MAD.
You’re making no sense, so I think I’m gonna peace out.
Yes Russia could launch a preemptive nuclear attack because Trump is a lunatic who kills and kidnaps leaders of other countries and sends drones (via Ukraine) to bomb Russian strategic sites
So Russia might think “kill them before they kill us” should Trump or Netanyahu use nukes against Iran.
MAD doesn’t work if one of the players is literally mad.
Got it now?
You can’t be serious.
Play this out:
Russia nukes the US.
In response, the US nukes Russia. Not just a little bit either, they nuke all population sites.
No “decapitation” strike is possible from either side. Any attack by either side is met by the other striking back, and again not just a little bit - all population sites. That is what mutually assured destruction is.
And maybe more if you need:
if you think the US nukes Russia, then:
surprise, Russia nukes the US back.
Once again, no decapitation strike is possible from either side. A strike by the US is met by Russia striking back. That is what mutually assured destruction is.
MAD literally works if either side starts nuking the other, regardless of the reason why. This is the whole basis of MAD.
Ok I’m really gonna peace out. You really need to do some reading.
How can they sanction us when global finance still overwhelmingly depends on the dollar though? It would certainly accelerate efforts to move to a new financial regime but it would still take years to accomplish.
Maybe mass dumping of US treasuries could be a feasible immediate option.
The move to a new financial regime would take as long as it takes a market to crash.
The world has been gradually de-dollarizing for over a decade now. USD held as global currency reserves has fallen from 70% to 40%. BRICS nations are implementing their own payment systems based on the renminbi, and the eurozone obviously can operate independently already.
A lot of global value is tied up in US investment systems, sure. But a nuke drop would make that value not very valuable anymore. It would suck and the world would be stuck in another great depression, but the rest of the world has plenty of functional financial systems to keep moving on.