From his latest article:
One of my sources has come forward and brought me a story that will possibly burst the AI bubble. The reason they brought this to me is that I’ve shown — and will continue to show — that I actually give a shit about this industry and the people in it. If you’re wondering what the story is, know that it’s the information I’ve wanted for years, delivered as I have always wanted it, and I will treat it with the reverence it deserves. Imagine what the worst possible thing for me to get would be and you’re probably close.
Link: https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-slowing-down/
I must say I’m pretty excited.
The worst (best) thing I can imagine is that they have some sort of mathematical proof that inference costs won’t drop or that training costs will. Their only path to profitability was a moat in the form of high cost to train a model and dirt cheap inference they can resell at a high price. If they finally have some idea which way it will fall then there’s nothing they can do.
I think that this would be too rational and scientific to cause an irrational market to correct.
I’m leaning more towards a money related confirmation. Maybe an OpenAI or Anthropic internal shared numbers.
Or, one of the four horsemen of the AIpocalypse?
There’s one company trying to etch models into the silicon, they got a working prototype in a 8b model and it does 17k t/s. They suggest at data center scales with bigger models it’d pay for itself in a year in saved costs in electricity, cooling, space required etc.
You can apply lora’s to it, but it will fall behind as it ages, im not quite sure how long a static model would last to make up the money after that 1st year, but for something like creative writing where it doesnt need current data (e.g programming but the languages are always changing and evolving is a problem) it might work?
I expect a slowdown in that regard anyway. As a lot of new code is heavily LLM generated anyway, it’s recycling “the same old shit” all the way down.
Languages are updated constantly. Its not like Python was created and never changed after that. You’d he stuck on whatever the latest version was when it got etched into the silicon.