Edit: I’m not even talking about that big of an extrapolation, as you can see. Although it took a long time just to replicate a small fraction of human intelligence we have clearly been accelerating. It took thousands of years to come up with a slide rule. Then 200 years to invent the direct multiplication mechanical calculator. Then 100 years to invent computers that could run programs. Then about 50 years to have somewhat decent machine translation of human languages. Then about 10 years to have chatbots that are hard to distinguish from humans and image generators which are hard to distinguish from photographs and videos.
Computers that used to take up whole floors and lots of power can now sit in your pocket 100 times over and last several days on a single battery. Resource demand for individual computers goes down as techniques improve. The human body proves that complexity and intelligence don’t require a lot of resources.
prove a mathematical conjecture nobody had been able to prove before.
Nobody cares because computers have been doing math since mathematicians invented them. There’s no “AI” involved at all. None of these mathematicians are dumb enough to think their computer is actually “intelligent”. It’s just lazy terminology and grifter bullshit.
Then about 10 years to have chatbots that are hard to distinguish from humans
General-purpose LLMs can already beat the very best of human intelligence some of the time (recent examples). So it won’t take very long for a few more breakthroughs to be made which will enable general-purpose AIs (LLMs, other neural networks, or something else entirely) to beat human intelligence most of the time, and then 90% of the time, then 99.9999% of the time. AI is already doing a lot of the coding to make AI and it could discover better alternatives to LLMs just like an LLM discovered a method to prove a mathematical conjecture nobody had been able to prove before.
Edit: I’m not even talking about that big of an extrapolation, as you can see. Although it took a long time just to replicate a small fraction of human intelligence we have clearly been accelerating. It took thousands of years to come up with a slide rule. Then 200 years to invent the direct multiplication mechanical calculator. Then 100 years to invent computers that could run programs. Then about 50 years to have somewhat decent machine translation of human languages. Then about 10 years to have chatbots that are hard to distinguish from humans and image generators which are hard to distinguish from photographs and videos.
Computers that used to take up whole floors and lots of power can now sit in your pocket 100 times over and last several days on a single battery. Resource demand for individual computers goes down as techniques improve. The human body proves that complexity and intelligence don’t require a lot of resources.
I’ve answered this in an edit to my comment which I had already started writing, anticipating this reply.
Sorry, but Anthropic’s marketing claims about how good it is are not trustworthy.
Nobody cares because computers have been doing math since mathematicians invented them. There’s no “AI” involved at all. None of these mathematicians are dumb enough to think their computer is actually “intelligent”. It’s just lazy terminology and grifter bullshit.
Hard to distinguish for which humans?
Cool story
Ai has hit a wall. They’re already running out of training data.