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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: June 14th, 2023

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  • I don’t disagree with your premise, because it is in Ukraine’s interest to push this idea as far and loud as possible.

    But, I think if you read between the lines on how Ukraine is communicating their assessment on the different implications for how many times Russians take satellite photos, it sounds like the Ukrainians either have some sort of system access to Russian satellite imaging, communication intercepts, or a human source.

    Of course they could just be speaking confidently about the number of images taken to advance their own goals, with no actual intelligence behind it, but I don’t think he’d put himself in that position.

    But, who knows? You know as much as I do.



  • I still this is more a PR strategy than anything.

    Allies or enemies, oil is a global market, and every ship they let through removes just a little bit of pressure from the global economy, which is their only leverage.

    Each ship obviously means a great deal for the country receiving it, so I don’t want to minimize that gesture, but I’m skeptical at how many they can plausibly let transit the straight, before it becomes counterproductive to their war aims of using their asymmetric economic leverage for victory.