Oh you’re right! My bad, sorry.

Huh, so I wonder why the graph lags behind the input data, then. The methodology page explains how they weight it, mostly.

That pretty much is the issue, yep. If she wins, it’s because she isn’t so totally unacceptable that she breaks the pattern.

No, it ends on Dec. 20th. It looks like your link is from 2026. They haven’t added it yet.

Huh, thanks. That’s actually more recent than the polls in the graph, I wonder when they’re going to get it put up.

Calgary is definitely going to be the battleground. Having a prominent former Calgary mayor as candidate should help at least a bit. I can’t say it’s impossible we’ll elect her again, but I can say all her ideas are unpopular, and that her messaging isn’t strong.