I’d think that, since this conversation happened on public property, and the conversation was among public servants, the conversation is subject to the same standards as any other public conversation.
Maybe the legal system is too stupid for that, though.
The more the traffic gets slowed down by pedestrians crossing, the more the city planners will look at the design of their intersections to improve safety.
Always hit the button, even if you’re not going to wait for the light.
Sure, boomers had puns. So did the silent generation, gen X, and Millennials.
Gen Z also has puns. They’re not the dominant feature… but they’re there.
But China isn’t going to sell my data to Uncle Sam to help deport my family (who are legal citizens). So there’s that.
A left turn lane, a right turn, and a through lane is normal?
No. No it’s not. That’s a design for a major artery, not for every single street with shops on it. If you grew up in the United States, and haven’t traveled, I’m afraid to tell you that you’ve never seen good road infrastructure in your life.
Yeah, I straight up don’t respond until they’ve asked/said the thing that they’re contacting me for.
Usually they finish their thought without me ever needing to respond. I did have one coworker who just… never said anything else. That’s also a win.
9th amendment.
It’s the best amendment, despite being, legally, the most useless.
I would argue that it was meant to cover the kind of situation where a private company is given government permission to gather surveillance data from the citizenry, in exchange for access to said data.
Me neither, but yeah, I’m making the same assumption.
So like, a bag of chicken frozen into a block… Thawing it in hot water WILL make it thaw faster, but it will also make the bacteria grow faster. Don’t do that.
… Isn’t the centerpiece the fact that you SHOULDN’T thaw food in hot water, because of bacteria?
If I understand correctly, the result of this process was coffee-flavored oatmeal, with no cream or sugar?
I also do this, by pouring hothothot coffee over some oats to soften them. It’s a lot better if you add something sweet, though, like dates, coconut cream, maple syrup, etc.
Apes of the Nation.
OK, let’s see the evidence for that assertion.
Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research - PMC
There’s one.
But obviously it’s not a guarantee if you don’t know what you’re doing. We also have documentation on where these methods fall short, such as when it’s based on exponential growth, rare events, or something else that humans are bad at understanding. Infectious Disease Forecasting.
But again, good statisticians are prepared to address those things.
And you have no idea of the mechanisms that shape that market.
That’s even better. If I don’t understand the mechanisms shaping the market, I won’t be able to correctly identify predictive variables for my model. In that case, I would be better off trusting the prediction market.
Obviously it would be better if the person building the model understood the mechanisms… but that takes time and money. If you’re managing 30 models, that might not be worth it.
If the contract isn’t something that meets the criteria for an efficient market, then yeah, it’s not something that can be used to give reasonable probabilities.
But for something like, winner of the democratic presidential primary, or the proce of gold in a month… then it’s genuinely a better predictive model than what a statistician would be able to come up with.
It doesn’t provide anything beneficial to anyone but its owners.
For statistics purposes, it gives me something incredibly beneficial. Simply by knowing the price of a contract, I can know with decent accuracy how likely something is to happen.
If you’re not in the field, you wouldn’t necessarily appreciate how valuable that is.
Well, it’s the aggregated opinion of people who use the site. Kalshi doesn’t set the price; people making the bets set the price based on the odds others are willing to accept.
There’s a sampling bias for sure, but since the odds given for this bet are based on how much people are willing to pay for that bet, this gives a very good approximation for how people actually feel about something.
It actually ends up being more reliable than most opinion polls in that way.
I think the vast majority of things are shared. Air, water, soil… roads, schools… your education… the bathrooms at the supermarket… the murals/sculptures that make your town look less like a shithole…
It’s perfectly in line with human nature, actually, to share things. People who amass hoards of wealth and fight for power and control… those are the weirdos.