The potential collapse of a key Atlantic ocean current − due to human-caused climate change − is in the news again.
You’d be hard-pressed to come up with a scarier scenario than what’s going on now with the “Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC),” the fickle Atlantic ocean current whose weakening and eventual collapse could change the climate and weather for hundreds of millions of people.
A pair of new scientific studies detail the present and potential future of the AMOC, which was the ocean current at the center of the fictional (and scientifically inaccurate) “Day After Tomorrow” climate change disaster movie in 2004.
In one study released April 8, scientists at the University of Miami determined that over the past 20 years, the AMOC has already been weakening at four different locations in the Atlantic. In the other study, released April 16, a separate group of European scientists said the AMOC will weaken by 50% by 2100, potentially eventually leading to its “collapse.”
A weakening AMOC means the Atlantic Ocean’s climate‑regulating currents slow down over a period of a few decades, while a collapse means the entire current system crosses a tipping point and mostly shuts down − triggering abrupt, potentially irreversible global climate disruptions.
Studies – https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adx4298
If I’m not mistaken, the movie posited that the temperature collapse is happening faster than we think and accelerated to collapse all at the same time.
The estimate is 2100 but that’s just an estimate. Reality is that it could happen at any time.
There’s nothing scientifically inaccurate about that part IMO. There’s positive feedback loops hiding everywhere. The bad things come in bursts. For example, melting ice releases trapped methane, causing higher temperatures and more melting ice. Who knows how fast this goes
At the time of the film’s release, it offered a new theory about what could happen to Earth’s climate in the future. Sure many scientist just laughed to this scenario. The funny thing is that AMOC research started in the same year. All we have is data from 2004 to the present, of course that is not enough to draw conclusions about our future climate.
Earth’s climate is complex, studying AMOC alone is not enough. And one of the biggest problem is that there are other MOCs, not just AMOC, any changes to AMOC will impact other MOCs. And there is a new research called the SAMOC Initiative started 5 yr ago.