I’ve been re-allocating my 401(K) investments for a few months now to try and soften the blow when it hits, but I’m not sure how far-reaching this will be.
I did the same thing. I moved to investments in the raw materials used to make the chips. I wanted to keep some AI related investments for the rise of the bubble so I moved my money out of microsoft, alphabet, amazon and nvidia and put it into Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing and Samsung electronics. The components will be already paid for while the software side of things implodes. At the beginning of Q4 I plan to move the profit and 50% of my base investment from component manufacturing into bonds so I can retain some of that value.
The AI bubble is going to fuck up the economy again. I had a ROI of 29% which seems insane. So many people are going to lose funds from their 401Ks when the bubble pops. Most people that have 401K through their jobs just let the entity managing the funds make the investments for them into something like retirement trusts/target date funds. Depending on the target date, most of what they are investing in is domestic funds where alphabet, amazon, meta are like the top stocks.
I urge everyone to read the prospectus documents attached to the trusts/target date funds you are investing in to see if you are in danger based on the top 10 stocks associated with your investment product.
They won’t. Corporations will never shed profits like that. They figure, regarding the jacked up price, that ‘people have shown what they’re willing to pay’.
There’s always an optimal point between demand and price. Ignoring part of your customer base is a risky strategy. The gap will almost certainly be filled by competitors, such as the upcoming Chinese semiconductor industry.
The Chinese manufacturers will be happy to claim that gap in the market, and in a few years after they get established and ramp production they’ll start undercutting everyone on those high margin data center products they abandoned consumers to focus on.
Except consumer demand is way way way down. The prices won’t go back to what they were but they’re going to have to drop considerably if the corporate money dries up. No one is buying it and they still need to sell it. Part of the reason things are so bad is they don’t want to build more capacity and get fucked by a huge drop in demand like has happened before where RAM prices bottomed out to the point they lost money on the RAM they were selling.
Wouldn’t it be neat of a ton of really rich assholes, suddenly woke up poor?
Oh no, I was a billionaire now I’m slumming it with 700 million…
More common: I am 65 years old and my retirement just imploded.
I’ve been re-allocating my 401(K) investments for a few months now to try and soften the blow when it hits, but I’m not sure how far-reaching this will be.
I did the same thing. I moved to investments in the raw materials used to make the chips. I wanted to keep some AI related investments for the rise of the bubble so I moved my money out of microsoft, alphabet, amazon and nvidia and put it into Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing and Samsung electronics. The components will be already paid for while the software side of things implodes. At the beginning of Q4 I plan to move the profit and 50% of my base investment from component manufacturing into bonds so I can retain some of that value.
The AI bubble is going to fuck up the economy again. I had a ROI of 29% which seems insane. So many people are going to lose funds from their 401Ks when the bubble pops. Most people that have 401K through their jobs just let the entity managing the funds make the investments for them into something like retirement trusts/target date funds. Depending on the target date, most of what they are investing in is domestic funds where alphabet, amazon, meta are like the top stocks.
I urge everyone to read the prospectus documents attached to the trusts/target date funds you are investing in to see if you are in danger based on the top 10 stocks associated with your investment product.
Eh they can’t let it get that bad or else they know humanity will truly embrace socialism and vote to strip mine the wealthy of their assets.
Why do you think folks like Peter Thiel and Larry Ellison are pushing “law enforcement” and mass surveillance so hard?
At least some of them believe they can credibly secure themselves against the masses easier than they can appease the masses.
Yes, but they’ll socialize the losses.
Well this poor bastard (me) will be waiting for the RAM, SSDs, and hard drives to come back down in price.
They won’t. Corporations will never shed profits like that. They figure, regarding the jacked up price, that ‘people have shown what they’re willing to pay’.
There’s always an optimal point between demand and price. Ignoring part of your customer base is a risky strategy. The gap will almost certainly be filled by competitors, such as the upcoming Chinese semiconductor industry.
The Chinese manufacturers will be happy to claim that gap in the market, and in a few years after they get established and ramp production they’ll start undercutting everyone on those high margin data center products they abandoned consumers to focus on.
Except consumer demand is way way way down. The prices won’t go back to what they were but they’re going to have to drop considerably if the corporate money dries up. No one is buying it and they still need to sell it. Part of the reason things are so bad is they don’t want to build more capacity and get fucked by a huge drop in demand like has happened before where RAM prices bottomed out to the point they lost money on the RAM they were selling.
As long as someone is regulating companies, competition should, in theory, reduce prices.
Yup, but also they need to have a stock for it.
Be the change you want to see in the world
That’s not gonna happen though. The rich will stay richer and the common pleb will be the ones carrying the weight of their failure.
If only this only impacted them.
The flow on effects of a major market crash are never isolated to just the stupid assholes building the bubble.